← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 46% | 30% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Bursaspor win | 25% | 39% | 4.00 | value: +55% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bursaspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 27.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1624.11 | 1725.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.36 | 25.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| league points | 26.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.27 |
| state index | 0.09 | 1.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |