← Süper Lig 2011-12 · Wed, Jan 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 52% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Buyuksehyr win | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Buyuksehyr | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 603.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1543.16 | 1825.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.59 | 2.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 27.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.14 |
| state index | -0.46 | 1.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |