← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaspor win | 39% | 25% | 2.50 | fair |
| Kayserispor win | 34% | 48% | 3.00 | value: +44% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bucaspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1431.50 | 1561.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.75 | -4.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 25.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.52 |
| state index | -0.95 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |