← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 42% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
| Gaziantep win | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.30 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 318.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1571.90 | 1628.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.85 | 6.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 50.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.72 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |