← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 76% | 72% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 17% | 6.00 | value: +4% |
| Ankaragücü win | 8% | 10% | 12.00 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Ankaragücü |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 348.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1838.25 | 1561.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.09 | 23.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 76.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.28 |
| state index | 1.79 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |