← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manisaspor win | 51% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Bucaspor win | 23% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Manisaspor | Bucaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1510.97 | 1441.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.51 | -1.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.78 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |