← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 61% | 48% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 3.80 | value: +10% |
| Manisaspor win | 15% | 23% | 6.50 | value: +51% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Manisaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 270.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1622.88 | 1516.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.75 | -18.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 52.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.26 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |