← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor win | 40% | 30% | 2.38 | fair |
| Buyuksehyr win | 31% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Buyuksehyr | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 917.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1549.47 | 1549.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.12 | 22.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |