← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 42% | 42% | 2.25 | fair |
| Besiktas win | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.40 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bursaspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 856.00 | 948.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1703.57 | 1663.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.86 | -5.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.18 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| league points | 55.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.52 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |