← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Mon, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ankaragücü win | 45% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 28% | 34% | 3.40 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ankaragücü | Kardemir Karabukspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 305.00 | 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1563.68 | 1522.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.59 | -13.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 39.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.33 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |