← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 68% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| Bucaspor win | 11% | 9% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bucaspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 327.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1443.95 | 1826.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.46 | 17.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| league points | 24.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.31 |
| state index | -0.47 | 1.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |