← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Mon, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 35% | 40% | 2.70 | value: +7% |
| Manisaspor win | 35% | 31% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Manisaspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1512.64 | 1567.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.87 | -44.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |