← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ankaragücü win | 48% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Bucaspor win | 24% | 16% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ankaragücü | Bucaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 289.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1532.27 | 1453.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.84 | -6.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 33.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.86 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |