← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Mon, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 47% | 60% | 2.00 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Kasimpasa win | 25% | 17% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kasimpasa | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 922.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1452.58 | 1656.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.67 | -0.64 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 20.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |