← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 43% | 39% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Galatasaray win | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 495.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1574.42 | 1761.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -53.00 | 14.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 33.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.33 |
| state index | -0.48 | 1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |