← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaspor win | 39% | 23% | 2.40 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 32% | 50% | 3.00 | value: +49% ⚠ |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bucaspor | Kardemir Karabukspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 647.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1442.14 | 1540.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.86 | 19.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 21.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.37 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |