← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 55% | 48% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
| Bursaspor win | 19% | 24% | 5.25 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 306.00 | 822.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1817.10 | 1732.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.72 | -37.34 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| league points | 60.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.96 |
| state index | 1.92 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |