← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 37% | 32% | 2.55 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 34% | 40% | 2.70 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kardemir Karabukspor | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 640.00 | 235.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1529.49 | 1633.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.44 | 42.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 34.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.77 |
| state index | 0.20 | 1.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |