← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaspor win | 38% | 31% | 2.50 | fair |
| Sivasspor win | 32% | 39% | 2.90 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bucaspor | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1467.74 | 1498.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.24 | 9.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 21.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |