← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sun, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 43% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.30 | value: +12% |
| Bucaspor win | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bucaspor | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1454.41 | 1634.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.46 | 66.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 18.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.79 |
| state index | -0.44 | 1.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |