← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray win | 58% | 58% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
| Kardemir Karabukspor win | 17% | 20% | 6.00 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Galatasaray | Kardemir Karabukspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1612.80 | 1527.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.28 | 2.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 32.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |