← Süper Lig 2010-11 · Fri, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor win | 45% | 58% | 2.10 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.30 | fair |
| Bucaspor win | 27% | 15% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bucaspor | Bursaspor |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 785.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1466.00 | 1741.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.89 | -27.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 18.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.05 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.52 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |