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Sivasspor 3–3 Ankaragücü

← Süper Lig 2009-10 · Sat, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win46%2.10
Draw28%3.30
Ankaragücü win25%3.80

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporAnkaragücü
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1383.00440.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1539.631533.96
elo momentum (last 5)13.271.43
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
league points27.0034.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.001.00
matches since win10.001.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg0.871.10
state index-0.32-0.09
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00