⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Besiktas 2–0 Buyuksehyr

← Süper Lig 2009-10 · Wed, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win62%1.50
Draw25%4.00
Buyuksehyr win13%7.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasBuyuksehyr
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days525.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1744.881568.28
elo momentum (last 5)-1.5519.13
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.271.06
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points39.0034.00
league rank4.008.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days11.004.00
season ppg1.861.55
state index1.000.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00