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Antalyaspor 4–2 Genclerbirligi

← Süper Lig 2008-09 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win40%2.25
Genclerbirligi win31%3.00
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporGenclerbirligi
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days155.00155.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1513.661539.84
elo momentum (last 5)-0.3019.74
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
league points29.0029.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
rest days14.9613.96
season ppg1.161.16
state index0.180.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60