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Manisaspor 0–3 Sakaryaspor

← Süper Lig 2006-07 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Manisaspor win54%1.72
Draw26%3.60
Sakaryaspor win20%4.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricManisasporSakaryaspor
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1479.721410.65
elo momentum (last 5)-56.31-28.55
form points (last 5)0.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.92
league points29.0017.00
league rank14.0018.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.0010.00
matches since win8.0012.00
rest days6.008.00
season ppg1.210.71
state index-1.34-1.58
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.00