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Sakaryaspor 1–3 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2006-07 · Sun, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sakaryaspor win37%2.45
Bursaspor win35%2.60
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSakaryasporBursaspor
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—116.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1424.071533.19
elo momentum (last 5)-32.63-6.39
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.531.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.45
league points16.0029.00
league rank18.0010.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
rest days7.008.00
season ppg0.761.38
state index-1.18-0.11
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80