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Galatasaray 4–2 Erciyesspor

← Süper Lig 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Galatasaray win74%1.22
Draw17%5.50
Erciyesspor win9%10.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGalatasarayErciyesspor
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1779.531505.56
elo momentum (last 5)5.29-8.43
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.780.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.10
league points56.0031.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days7.009.00
season ppg2.331.29
state index1.66-0.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60