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İstanbulspor 0–3 Galatasaray

← Süper Lig 2004-05 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Galatasaray win68%1.30
Draw21%4.20
İstanbulspor win10%8.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricİstanbulsporGalatasaray
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days226.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
elo1460.591736.75
elo momentum (last 5)-12.5315.02
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
league points18.0054.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank4.006.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
rest days3.007.00
season ppg0.782.35
state index-0.961.51
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00