⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Kocaelispor 2–3 Yeni Malatyaspor

← Süper Lig 2002-03 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kocaelispor win37%2.40
Yeni Malatyaspor win36%2.50
Draw27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKocaelisporYeni Malatyaspor
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days884.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
elo1408.161537.44
elo momentum (last 5)9.44-4.02
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
league points22.0042.00
league rank18.008.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg0.761.45
state index-0.620.08
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80