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Galatasaray 5–0 Altay

← Süper Lig 2002-03 · Fri, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Galatasaray win76%1.17
Draw16%5.50
Altay win8%12.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGalatasarayAltay
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1748.741463.11
elo momentum (last 5)10.0725.10
form points (last 5)12.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.71
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
league points60.0029.00
league rank2.0010.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days5.005.00
season ppg2.311.12
state index1.690.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40