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Bursaspor 3–3 Denizlispor

← Süper Lig 2001-02 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bursaspor win52%1.70
Draw27%3.30
Denizlispor win21%4.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporDenizlispor
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1206.0089.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1510.521525.92
elo momentum (last 5)12.270.67
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.37
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
league points43.0036.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank4.005.00
matches since clean sheet10.005.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days7.967.96
season ppg1.541.29
state index0.150.07
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00