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İstanbulspor 1–3 Denizlispor

← Süper Lig 2000-01 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
İstanbulspor win46%1.90
Draw28%3.15
Denizlispor win26%3.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricİstanbulsporDenizlispor
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1717.00987.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.002.00
elo1494.981491.60
elo momentum (last 5)-11.38-5.54
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.030.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.10
league points37.0035.00
league rank8.0011.00
matches since blank6.0014.00
matches since clean sheet11.008.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days3.007.00
season ppg1.371.30
state index-0.42-0.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.200.20