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Genclerbirligi 0–2 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2000-01 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Genclerbirligi win40%2.20
Trabzonspor win32%2.75
Draw28%3.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGenclerbirligiTrabzonspor
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days426.00426.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1496.581516.83
elo momentum (last 5)-35.45-24.54
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
league points33.0035.00
league rank6.005.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet7.004.00
matches since win3.002.00
rest days7.005.00
season ppg1.501.59
state index-0.64-0.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00