← Jupiler Pro League 2023 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kortrijk win | 45% | 2.12 |
| Molenbeek win | 28% | 3.52 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.52 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Kortrijk −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Molenbeek −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.