← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Tue, Apr 6, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| St Truiden win | 43% | 2.27 |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 29% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Waasland-Beveren +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| St Truiden +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.