← Jupiler Pro League 2020 · Sat, Apr 3, 02:15 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oostende win | 64% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.66 |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 15% | 7.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oostende −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Waasland-Beveren −1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.