← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 60% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.14 | fair |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 16% | 18% | 5.95 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charleroi | Waasland-Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1002.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1600.76 | 1473.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.35 | -3.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 38.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.07 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |