← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 38% | 43% | 2.57 | value: +10% |
| St Truiden win | 32% | 31% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St Truiden | Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 179.00 | 1549.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1428.87 | 1553.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.91 | -26.66 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.37 |
| state index | -1.01 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |