← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem win | 52% | 50% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.95 | fair |
| Mechelen win | 23% | 27% | 4.23 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waregem | Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1543.00 | 661.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1565.69 | 1548.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.69 | 3.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 37.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |