← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 55% | 45% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.79 | value: +6% |
| Charleroi win | 19% | 28% | 5.06 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 234.00 | 994.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1611.28 | 1615.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.02 | 3.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 34.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |