← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win | 37% | 33% | 2.65 | fair |
| Mouscron-Peruwelz win | 35% | 42% | 2.76 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mouscron-Peruwelz | Oud-Heverlee Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.88 | 1473.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.18 | 7.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |