← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 67% | 60% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.48 | value: +9% |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 11% | 16% | 8.59 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genk | Waasland-Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 288.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1614.84 | 1466.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.36 | -13.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 38.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.59 | -0.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |