← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 71% | 62% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.82 | value: +8% |
| St Truiden win | 9% | 15% | 10.94 | value: +66% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 221.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1647.72 | 1437.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.46 | -20.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.08 |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.87 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |