← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Feb 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 36% | 44% | 2.68 | value: +17% |
| Mouscron-Peruwelz win | 34% | 28% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mouscron-Peruwelz | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1471.41 | 1606.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.38 | 16.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 23.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.96 | 0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |