← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sun, Jan 24, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard win | 37% | 35% | 2.61 | fair |
| Gent win | 34% | 38% | 2.85 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Standard | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 207.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1653.03 | 1737.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.35 | 2.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| league points | 31.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 2.09 |
| state index | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |