← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mouscron-Peruwelz win | 38% | 29% | 2.58 | fair |
| Lokeren win | 33% | 44% | 2.98 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mouscron-Peruwelz | Lokeren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1464.49 | 1599.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.84 | -9.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 21.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |