← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 39% | 38% | 2.48 | fair |
| Mechelen win | 32% | 34% | 3.09 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 632.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1534.40 | 1599.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.27 | 8.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.41 |
| state index | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |