← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokeren win | 40% | 44% | 2.46 | value: +8% |
| Waasland-Beveren win | 32% | 28% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Waasland-Beveren | Lokeren |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1479.85 | 1608.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.42 | 26.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 24.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |