← Jupiler Pro League 2015-16 · Sat, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 51% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
| Mechelen win | 23% | 25% | 4.28 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mechelen | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 604.00 | 573.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1524.45 | 1745.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.20 | 23.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| league points | 22.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 2.15 |
| state index | -0.25 | 1.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |